THEMATIC DEBATE

OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY
UNITED NATIONS HEADQUARTERS,

NEW YORK
31 JULY / 1 AUGUST, 2007

"CLIMATE CHANGE AS A GLOBAL CHALLENGE"

This document provides an overview of some of the key issues to be
considered during the General Assembly’s Thematic Debate on climate
change, including:

the latest scientific assessments;
the two components of the response - adaptation and mitigation;
the role of the private sector; and,
possible next steps in the multilateral process.
An annex describes the existing commitments, financial architecture and
progress to date of the institutional response to climate change under the
auspices of the United Nations.

OVERVIEW

1. The average global temperature rose by 0.74°C during last century.
This is the largest and fastest warming trend in the history of the Earth that
scientists have been able to discern. Current projections show that trend
will continue and will accelerate. The best estimate indicates that the Earth
could warm by 3°C during the 21st Century. Scientists are now certain that
most of the change is due to human activities that emit greenhouse gases.
Greenhouse gases, of which CO2 is the most important, trap heat in the
Earth’s atmosphere, leading to the overall rise of global temperatures,
which are liable to disrupt natural climate patterns. Eleven of the last 12
years rank among the 12 warmest in the last 150 years. The warming trend
has already affected all continents and oceans.

2. The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
reports issued this year dispelled many uncertainties. Climate change is
already having significant impacts in certain regions, particularly in
developing countries, and on most ecosystems. It will affect developing
countries’ ability to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
However, the reports also show that the problem can be addressed and
that affordable mitigation solutions exist. Economic assessments indicate
that the cost of inaction will exceed the cost of taking early action, probably
by several orders of magnitude. Dealing with climate change is an
economic necessity to avoid serious disruption to global and national
economic and social activity.

3. The challenge now is to develop a fairer and more effective global
response to address this global problem. Some of the worst scenarios
outlined by the IPCC can still be avoided by taking immediate action. This
requires concerted efforts by all countries, especially industrialised
countries and major emerging economies, to significantly reduce the
amounts of greenhouse gas emissions. Since climate change is already
negatively affecting people in many areas, it is necessary to develop
methods that will allow people and communities to adapt to the realities
imposed by climate change. Developing countries will be the most affected
and are those with the most limited resources – a combination that will
require collective efforts to address.

4. 2007 is a critical year and the UN is working to bring countries
together to develop a global approach to address climate change. Many
initiatives are being launched and commitments undertaken by Member
States, groups of States, civil society and the private sector. These are
essential but not sufficient by themselves. The UN and its Framework
Convention on Climate Change offer the institutional framework within
which a global solution can be achieved (see Annex A).

I. THE CHANGING GLOBAL CLIMATE: ASSESSING THE SCIENCE
AND THE IMPACTS
IPCC latest assessments

average temperature rise of around 3°C expected this century.
during the last 100 years the earth has warmed by 0.74 °C, most
rapidly over the last 50 years; Arctic temperatures have
increased at almost twice this rate.
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have increased
from a pre-industrial value of 278 parts-per million (ppm) to
379 ppm in 2005.

5. The "blanket" of greenhouse gases that occurs naturally in the
atmosphere serves the vital function of regulating the planet’s climate.
Since the start of the industrial revolution some 250 years ago, emissions
of greenhouse gases have been making this blanket thicker at an
unprecedented speed. This has caused the most dramatic change in the
atmosphere’s composition since at least 650,000 years ago. Unless
significant efforts are made to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, the
global climate will continue to warm rapidly over the coming decades and
beyond.

6. The IPCC – created in 1988 by the World Meteorological
Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme – provides
the most authoritative and comprehensive assessments of the state of
knowledge on climate change every five years. These assessments also
provide the basis for international policy-making on climate change. The
IPCC does not conduct new research, but makes policy-relevant
assessments of the existing worldwide literature on the scientific, technical
and socio-economic aspects of climate change, drawing on the work of
hundreds of experts from all regions of the world.

7. The latest IPCC assessment, released during 2007, shows that the
warming of the climate system is unequivocal and accelerating. This is
based on evidence of increases in global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global
average sea level.

8. Projections indicate faster warming is expected. If emissions
continue to rise at their current pace and are allowed to double from their
pre-industrial level, the world will face an average temperature rise of
around 3°C this century. To explain the magnitude of such seemingly
insignificant global temperature changes from a different perspective: the
difference between the present average global temperature and an ice age
is 5 °C.

9. Serious impacts are associated with these scenarios, including sealevel
rise, shifts in growing seasons, and an increasing frequency and
intensity of extreme weather events such as storms, floods and droughts.
Impacts of climate change will vary regionally, with the most significant
impacts expected in the Arctic, the Asian mega-deltas, Small Island
Developing States (SIDS) and sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change will
further constrain water resources, already stretched by growing demand
from agriculture, industry and cities. Rising temperatures will further
diminish the mountain snow pack and increase evaporation, thus altering
the seasonal availability of water.

10. Overall, developing countries are the most vulnerable to these risks.
In the most vulnerable communities, the impacts of climate change pose a
direct threat to people’s very survival. The devastating effects of extreme
events, temperature increases and sea level rise will worsen with
consequences for all of us, particularly the poor.

11. Wildlife and biological diversity – already threatened by habitat
destruction and other human-caused stresses – will face an increased risk
of extinction. The most vulnerable ecosystems include coral reefs, boreal
(sub-arctic) forests, mountain habitat and those dependent on a
Mediterranean climate. The oceans will also experience higher
temperatures, and as they absorb more carbon dioxide sea life will be
negatively affected due to increasing acidity. In all regions, the faster the
temperatures rise, the greater the risk of damage.

12. The climate does not immediately respond to reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions. Some greenhouse gases survive in the
atmosphere for years, decades or even centuries. As a result, climate
change will continue for hundreds of years after atmospheric
concentrations have stabilized. Significant reductions in global emissions of
greenhouse gases are required. However, decisions on the precise level at
which greenhouse gas concentrations should be stabilized to prevent
dangerous climate change have not been taken yet.

II. ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE

13. Adaptation is a process through which societies make themselves
better able to cope with the risks associated with climate change. These
risks are real and already happening in many systems and sectors
essential for human livelihood, including water resources, food security and
health. Adaptation options are many and range from technological options
such as increased sea defenses or flood-proof houses on stilts, to behavior
change at the individual level, such as the sparing use of water, lower and
more efficient energy consumption. Other strategies include early warning
systems for extreme events, improved risk management, insurance options
and biodiversity conservation to reduce climate change impacts on people,
e.g. by conserving and restoring mangroves to protect people from storms.

14. Delay to adaptation, and that includes any delay in helping to finance
and support concerted, long-term adaptation in developing countries, will
mean increased costs and pose greater risks to humanity in the future.
Droughts or loss of glacial melt-water, for example, could trigger largescale
population movements and heightened competition over scarcer
resources such as water, food and energy. According to the Stern Review,
these effects may exacerbate existing political tensions and could drive
greater global instability.

15. The IPCC suggest that future vulnerability depends not only on
climate change but also on development pathways. Sustainable
development can reduce vulnerability. To be successful, adaptation should
be mainstreamed in national and international sustainable development
priorities and sectoral programs. Climate change can policies can also
promote activities with multiple benefits to catalyze progress in achieving
sustainable development goals, while contributing to adaptation objectives.

16. Effective national adaptation strategies may include:
Measures to enhance the scientific basis for decision making;
methods and tools for the assessment of adaptation;
education, training and public awareness on adaptation, including for
young people;
promoting individual and institutional capacity-building;
technology development and transfer;
promotion of local coping strategies; and,
legislation and regulatory frameworks, which promote adaptivefriendly
action.

17. Many countries are starting to take concrete action to adapt to future
climate changes. This needs to be expanded and integrated into national
and sectoral plans to ensure that sustainable development and adaptation
are progress together. The UNFCCC fosters adaptation by committing all
Parties to formulate, implement, publish and update adaptation measures,
as well as to cooperate on adaptation. A variety of support mechanisms
for adaptation implementation in developing countries are supported;
including, the provision of funding, insurance and technology transfer, as
well as scientific and technical assistance.

18. National Adaptation Programmes of Action are an option for Least
Developed Countries and provide a rigorous assessment of urgent
adaptation needs. They aim to expand the coping range of communities.
In addition, the ‘Nairobi’ work programme on impacts, vulnerability and
adaptation to climate change assists all countries in understanding and
assessing impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. It enables informed
decision-making on practical adaptation actions and measures and
provides a structured framework for cooperation. The UN System, its
specialised agencies and other international organisations also mainstream
adaptation into their relevant work programmes.

19. Adaptation must be implemented through a holistic approach
incorporating both local (bottom-up) and national (top-down) levels. The
role of the UNFCCC is to catalyze adaptation efforts through this integrated
and cross-cutting set of actions, which take into consideration current
climate variability and future climate change. These actions should be
linked to national and sectoral policies and objectives, as well as
environmental objectives of other Multilateral Environmental Agreements.
Bilateral, multilateral and regional collaboration must be included both in
terms of assessment and implementation of adaptation measures.

20. It is critical that adaptation be brought forward on policy agendas.
Parties to the UNFCCC have already highlighted the major challenges and
the most important elements that might be part of an enhanced multilateral
response to climate change when the first commitment period under the
Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012. Sustained sufficient funding for the
implementation of large-scale adaptation initiatives is of key importance.
Without sufficient and targeted funding, adaptation runs the risk of not
being effectively addressed. Short-term emergency relief, or "reactive"
funding, is costly and unsupportive of sustainable development approaches
over the long term.

21. Adaptation does not obviate the need for mitigating greenhouse gas
emissions. Both adaptation and mitigation strategies are necessary and
complementary.

III. REDUCING THE EMISSIONS THAT CAUSE CLIMATE CHANGE

22. At present total annual emissions of greenhouse gases are rising.
Over the last three decades, emissions increased by an average of 1.6 per
cent per year with CO2 emissions from fossil fuels use growing at 1.9 per
cent per year. In the absence of further policy action, these emission
trends are expected to continue. The IPCC observed that for the period
1970 - 2004, the largest growth in greenhouse gas emissions has come
from energy supply and consumption, and road transport. At the same
time, access to energy is crucial for achieving the MDGs, and is one of the
over-riding concerns of developing countries, since economic growth
demands increased or more efficient energy supply and consumption.

23. According to the reference scenario of the International Energy
Agency (IEA), global energy demand will grow by 60 per cent by 2030. In
the period up to 2030, the energy supply infrastructure world-wide will
require a total investment of USD20 trillion, with about half of that in
developing countries. The way in which these energy needs are met will
determine whether climate change will remain manageable. Both national
and international climate policies and actions are needed to "green" energy
supply and economic growth. It is also, of paramount importance that the
growth of emissions is decoupled from economic growth. Mitigation efforts
over the next two to three decades will determine to a large extent the
long-term mean global temperature increase and the corresponding
climate change impacts that are avoided.

24. According to the IPCC, there is significant potential for mitigation,
including increasing the use of clean technologies and improving end-use
efficiency. There are significant economic potential for all sectors involved
in mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decades.
This potential is sufficient to offset the projected growth of global emissions
or even to reduce emissions below current levels. The IPCC suggest that
the macro-economic effects of mitigation towards stabilization (between
445 and 710 ppm of CO2e) in 2030 vary from a small increase in global
GDP to a 3 per cent decrease, depending of the stringency of the
stabilization target. The Stern Review suggests that the annual cost of
emissions reductions leading to stabilization at 550 ppm CO2e is likely to be
around 1 percent of GDP by 2050.

25. Some of the available mitigation options are in fact "no regrets"
opportunities that can yield multiple societal and environmental benefits.
At the same time, concerns of developing country oil exporting nations,
which center on the negative impacts that mitigation measures in
developed countries may have on their economies, need to be taken into
account.

26. The wide deployment of climate-friendly technologies is key to
meeting the mitigation challenge. Existing clean technologies need to be
rapidly picked up by the private sector and deployed widely, including
through technological cooperation between industrialised and developing
countries. Addressing climate change will, however, require continuous
improvement through innovation and the development of new technologies.

27. Governments can play a major role motivating the private sector to
invest in innovative technologies by providing incentives that are clear,
predictable, long term and robust. Governments are successfully using a
wide range of policies and measures that address climate change,
including regulations and standards, taxes and charges, tradable permits,
voluntary agreements, subsidies, financial incentives, research and
development programs, and information instruments.

28. Effective mitigation requires a diversified portfolio of policies to
address all major sectors. Some of the cheapest options for reducing
emissions involve electricity savings in buildings, fuel savings in vehicles
and increased soil carbon content in agriculture. Policies to promote a shift
to less carbon-intensive energy sources are particularly effective.
Governments can promote a range of energy options, including the
encouragement of natural gas as well as mature renewable energy
technologies such as large hydro, biomass combustion and geothermal.
Carbon capture and storage technology is another option to isolate carbon
emissions from the atmosphere, and to store them, for example in
geological formation.

29. Approximately 30 per cent of the projected emissions in the
residential and commercial sectors – the highest rate amongst all sectors
studied by the IPCC – could be reduced by 2030 with a net economic
benefit. Improvements relating to transport, such as providing public
transport systems and their related infrastructure and promoting nonmotorised
transport can further reduce emissions. The greatest potential
for reducing industrial emissions is located in the energy-intensive steel,
cement, and pulp and paper industries. Options for reducing agricultural
emissions are cost competitive in achieving long-term climate objectives.

30. Current rates of deforestation contribute to more than 20% of humancaused
greenhouse gas emissions, making deforestation across the globe
a significant contributor to human-induced climate change. The UN’s Food
and Agriculture Organisation estimates that between 2000 and 2005, an
average of 12.9 million hectares of forests was lost annually, mostly in
South America, followed by Africa and Asia. Arresting today’s high levels
of deforestation, promoting sustainable forest management and planting or
promoting new forests could considerably reduce greenhouse gas
emissions.

31. Climate policies can also bring many win-win benefits that may not
factor into cost estimates – positive externalities. These include
technological innovation, tax reforms, increased employment, improved
energy security and health benefits from reduced pollution. Climate
policies offering significant co-benefits have the potential to reduce
greenhouse gases and provide substantial advantages for numerous
economic sectors and for varying development goals.

32. Mainstreaming climate change mitigation is an integral part of
sustainable development. The IPCCs findings confirm that sustainable
development can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reduce
vulnerability to climate change. Increasingly, strategies to address climate
change are being integrated into national planning and sustainable
development strategies. Many countries have already launched major
national strategies on climate change with a range of government policies
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from industry, agriculture, and
forestry, as well as ambitious energy efficiency and renewable energy
goals.

33. Projected climate changes can exacerbate poverty and undermine
sustainable development, especially in least-developed countries. Global
mitigation efforts can enhance sustainable development prospects in part
by reducing the risk of adverse impacts of climate change. Effective
multilateral cooperation significantly reduces the global cost of addressing
climate change compared to the costs if each country was to act alone.
The emerging carbon market resulting from the Kyoto Protocol is an
illustration of how market incentives can be used to meet objectives set by
an international agreement.

IV. THE ROLE OF BUSINESS IN SHAPING SOLUTIONS

34. The role of business as a source of solutions on global climate
change is now universally recognized, and its interaction with the public
policy agenda is increasing. The business community can offer new
choices, innovate, apply knowledge and technology to problems and turn
them into opportunities. Key to establishing such a role has been the
growing number of corporations who have understood the vital importance
of corporate social responsibility, risk mitigation, and performance
dimensions associated with the sustainable production and use of energy.
Actions to address climate change can also provide a platform for new
economic growth, new jobs, new manufacturing and service industries, and
new roles for sectors such as agriculture and forestry.

35. Many of the world’s leading businesses are stepping up to the
problem of climate change because they understand its risks and
recognize the need to act to minimize those risks. They also see enormous
opportunities in the development of new, climate-friendly technologies that
will help economies advance and grow — without continuing to pose a
threat to the global climate. They also want to improve their competitive
position in the marketplace and to get a head start developing the
technologies and the strategies that will contribute to reducing emissions in
the years ahead.

36. There is a wide range of activities that businesses can undertake to
reduce their contribution to climate change. They can implement green
power programs and cogeneration projects; they can develop energysaving
processes and products, clean fuels, biomass energy, cleanburning
vehicle engines and much more. With assistance from
governments, they can play an important role in the climate effort through
partnerships. Both research partnerships and partnerships in the
development of climate policy, can help ensure a factual basis about what
can be achieved, how to achieve it and when.

37. At the international and national levels, governments need to provide
business with certainty of direction. The challenge is to continue to create
the frameworks and partnerships that will allow business to play its
essential role in protecting the climate. They need to know that climate
change is a priority, to understand the direction and the ultimate goal of
national and international climate policies. This will allow businesses to
invest with confidence in the necessary technologies and strategies.

(END FIRST PART)